The global mining mergers and acquisitions (M&A) landscape has entered a quieter phase following a period of intense activity in the early 2020s. While 2023 saw a noticeable decline in deal volume and value, 2024 brought even sharper reductions. According to PwC, the total value of mining transactions worldwide dropped to about US53 billion across roughly 980 deals, down from US76 billion in 2023, a stark shift after several years of high-profile deals and record values.
One of the key factors behind this downturn was the slowdown in the energy transition minerals sector, particularly in lithium, rare earths and other battery metals. After several years of frenzied deal activity, volatile prices have made bidders, financiers and offtakers more cautious, creating a pause in deals. A few brave acquirers have taken the plunge with counter-cyclical transactions, but it is too early to say whether these can be rated as successes.
However, there are good reasons to think the lull in deal flow may prove temporary. Analysts predict that a second wave of consolidation is likely to emerge in late 2025 and beyond, particularly in gold and base metals.
Gold sector: a high-stakes arena for consolidation
In particular, the gold sector has seen notable deal activity despite the broader slowdown. Flush with cash from record prices, gold miners are looking to bolster their reserves and mine lives through strategic acquisitions.
A landmark transaction in 2025 – Northern Star Resources $6.1 billion acquisition of De Grey – is typical of these kinds of deals, providing a growth pathway for Northern Star while de-risking the development of the world-class Hemi Project in the Pilbara.
This transaction was the biggest domestic gold deal of 2025 and signalled a broader trend of consolidation which has continued with transactions such as Gold Fields bid for joint venture partner Gold Road and Ramelius’ bid for Spartan. Larger mid-tier players, even those already at the top of their game in terms of profitability, are not shying away from larger deals. This drive for expansion is motivated by the need to replenish declining production profiles at existing mines and capitalise on the continued high demand for gold.
Rebalancing portfolios for the clean energy future
Global mining companies are increasingly shifting their focus towards portfolio diversification, driven by both risk mitigation and future opportunities in the clean energy economy. Those traditionally exposed to iron ore or coal, are increasingly investing in metals such as copper, nickel and lithium to position themselves for the future.
This shift is reflective of the broader industry trend: as demand for traditional commodities fluctuates, companies are seeking to capitalise on emerging growth areas, especially those linked to energy transition technologies.
Selectivity in deal-making: caution amid market uncertainty
Despite the strategic shift towards diversification, the appetite for large-scale M&A has cooled, with companies now operating under a more disciplined capital management framework. Higher interest rates and increased shareholder pressure for strong returns have tempered the urge to pursue acquisitive growth. Companies are adopting a more selective approach, with many preferring joint ventures or incremental stake increases over full takeovers unless the deal offers a clear and compelling strategic rationale.
One emerging trend in the mining M&A space is the increasing interest in technology-driven acquisitions. Mining companies are increasingly investing in technology firms specialising in AI for mineral exploration, automation of haulage and innovative ore-processing techniques. These smaller, but strategically significant, deals offer opportunities for enhancing productivity and improving environmental, social and governance performance. The adoption of new technologies will be essential for mining companies looking to drive efficiency gains and reduce their environmental impact.
Australia: a strong destination for investment
On the financing front, Australia remains an attractive destination for mining capital, notwithstanding an ever more complex regulatory landscape.
The Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) continues to see new listings (or secondary listings) of resource companies from abroad, largely due to the country's stable regulatory framework, strong investor base and expertise in mining. Global investors appreciate the deep pools of capital available in Australia, such as superannuation funds, which are increasingly investing in the sector, and the relatively liberal rules for secondary capital raising on ASX, which allow flexibility to pursue growth.
Additionally, there has been a noticeable uptick in Middle Eastern and Asian investment in Australian mining projects. These investors are bringing fresh capital into the sector, with private equity also showing increased interest, particularly in critical minerals projects that require developmental funding.
The next phase of mining M&A
The mining sector is entering a more strategic phase in its corporate activity. While the frenetic deal-making of the early 2020s may have cooled, companies are rebalancing their portfolios for the future. This may involve merging with competitors, acquiring junior companies with coveted deposits, or divesting non-core assets. As mining CEOs navigate an uncertain market landscape, the second half of 2025 will reveal how bold they are willing to be in pursuing growth through M&A activity.