G+T has released its Takeovers and Schemes Review 2026, analysing Australian public M&A activity across 2025 and setting out the forces reshaping dealmaking in the year ahead.
The review examined transactions involving ASX-listed targets valued above $50 million and finds that activity remained resilient despite geopolitical volatility, inflation and increased regulatory scrutiny. Strong participation from private capital and offshore bidders, combined with sustained competition for high-quality assets, continues to underpin the market.
G+T’s analysis identifies three dynamics defining the 2026 landscape: capital remains available, execution is becoming more complex and regulation is playing a more central role in shaping outcomes.
Global capital continues to target Australian assets aligned to long-term structural themes, including energy, infrastructure, AI and critical minerals. At the same time, boards are increasingly focused on approach readiness and valuation discipline, reflecting a more demanding execution environment. Regulatory change, including Australia’s new merger regime and heightened scrutiny of competition and national interest, is extending deal timelines and increasing execution risk.
Partner Wes Bainbridge said 2025 marked a shift in how boards approached M&A.
Boards moved early and stayed ready. Preparing for approaches is no longer optional and that shift defined how deals played out across 2025.
Partner Olivia Blakiston said global capital remained a defining feature of last year’s market.
Global investors stayed active through 2025 and continued to target Australian assets with long-term upside, particularly in sectors tied to structural growth.
Partner and co-lead of Corporate Advisory Costas Condoleon said regulatory strategy is now central to deal execution.
Regulation will set the tempo for deals in 2026. Those who engage early and build regulatory strategy into deal design will be best placed to manage timing and execution risk.
Partner and co-lead of Corporate Advisory Rachael Bassil said execution discipline will separate successful deals in the year ahead.
Capital is there, but conviction matters more. In a more volatile and scrutinised environment, parties who can bridge valuation gaps and move decisively will get transactions through.
Private capital remains a major driver of public M&A, supported by significant dry powder and increasingly sophisticated approaches, including take-private transactions. At the same time, valuation gaps and market volatility are making alignment harder, reinforcing the need for disciplined strategy and execution.
Reflecting its position at the centre of the market, G+T continues to lead on complex, high-profile transactions, including the USD1.15 billion sale of Eucalyptus, Pacific Equity Partners on its $1.3 billion take-private of Johns Lyng Group and MAC Copper on its $1.6 billion proposed acquisition by NYSE and JSE-listed Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited.
The Takeovers and Schemes Review 2026 provides practical insights into deal trends, transaction structures, competitive dynamics and regulatory developments shaping Australian public M&A.
